PERAMALAN PRODUKSI KARET RAKYAT DI KABUPATEN OGAN KOMERING ULU TAHUN 2026

Abstract

This research is aimed to analyze the forecasting of people’s rubber production in Ogan
Komering Ulu District in 2026. The research method used for this type of research uses
secondary data. The data collected in this study is in the form of time series data, which are
people's rubber production data for the past 10 years in Ogan Komering Ulu District which
was obtained from the Agriculture Service and the Central Statistics Agency. Processing and
data analysis methods for forecasting people’s rubber production in Ogan Komering Ulu
District use exponential forecasting analysis. The results showed that the forecasting of
rubber production in Ogan Komering Ulu District tended to fluctuate, from 2018 - 2021
people’s rubber production in Ogan Komering Ulu District the rate of growth was positive
which showed an increase in folk rubber production, a positive growth rate would be
accompanied by an increase in farmers' income. But in the year 2022 - 2026 the growth rate
was negative, indicating a decline in people's rubber production. The decline in people’s
rubber production can be caused by declining rubber prices, declining rubber prices which
also reduce farmers' income. In addition, the decline in folk rubber production is also caused
by weather factors, trees experience drought due to drought so that the sap produced from
tapping tends to be less.
Keyword: exponential, forecasting, rubber production