PENGARUH IMPOR, SUKU BUNGA DAN INFLASI TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA INDONESIA

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to analyze the influence of imports, interest rates, and inflation on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia for the period 2009–2023, both simultaneously and partially.

This research adopts a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI) for the years 2009–2023. The analytical tool employed is Multiple Linear Regression, and data processing is conducted using SPSS software.

The results of the study indicate that, simultaneously (F-test), the variables imports, interest rates, and inflation have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia. Partial testing (t-test) shows that imports have a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia, interest rates have a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, while inflation has a negative but insignificant effect on foreign exchange reserves. The regression coefficient for the imports variable is negative, indicating an inverse relationship between imports and foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia. The regression coefficient for interest rates is also negative, indicating an inverse relationship between interest rates and foreign exchange reserves. Similarly, the regression coefficient for inflation is negative, indicating an inverse relationship between inflation and foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia.

The coefficient of determination (Adjusted R Square) analysis results show that the combined influence of imports, interest rates, and inflation on the variation of foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia is 49.2%, while the remaining 50.8% is explained by other variables not included in this study, such as exports and exchange rates.